The Irish Times
The Syrian conflict has lasted more than four years, displacing 11m Syrians and killing 250,000. Russia’s intervention this week raises the dim prospect of an end to the conflict
Uphill battle: the aftermath of air strikes in Kafr Nabel, a town in Idlib province. Photograph: Hadi al-Abdallah via AP
The
timeline of Syria’s grinding civil war is dotted with illusory turning
points. These were atrocities or grim milestones that the world assumed
would usher the conflict towards an endgame but served only to reinforce
its horrendous, unswerving trajectory. The use of chemical weapons was
one. The advance of Islamic State was another.
The pattern has held with almost every town that has fallen (Raqqa, Palmyra) or been razed (Aleppo, Homs), and with each new intervention by a foreign power. None has been decisive.
Instead
the dynamic of the conflict has held firm. Four and a half years after
it began amid the optimism of the Arab Spring, the war’s aftershocks are
still pulsing outwards, across the Middle East and into Europe, and the outside world is steadily and with varying degrees of reluctance being drawn further in.
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Putin Scores Another Much-Needed Win in Syria
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When Boris Yeltsin appointed Vladimir Putin prime minister in 1999, Putin had an approval rating in Russia of 31 percent. About 37 percent of Russians didn't even know who he was. After a series of mysterious bombings in Moscow, Putin blamed Chechen separatists and promised to flush Chechens down their toilets (his words). Bombing began in
October of that year. By 2000, Putin's poll numbers hit 84 percent.
Putin needed a win, and he got one. That was a formative political
experience.
Times are hard in today's Russia. Falling oil prices have taken a serious toll, and Western sanctions haven't helped. Prices have surged 16 percent since August, and the ruble has fallen 5.5 percent against the dollar. Russia's economy will shrink 3.4 percent this year. No one, not even Russian state officials, expects economic conditions to improve much anytime soon.
With power comes responsibility. That's the downside of being as powerful as Putin is in Russia. He can blame others for Russia's problems but he needs to keep putting wins on the board. On Feb. 22, 2014, Ukrainian protesters infuriated the Kremlin by ousting then-President Viktor Yanukovych, Moscow's man in Kiev, and Putin moved quickly to flex his muscles. By Feb. 27, the streets of Crimea were filled with men in ski masks carrying automatic weapons. Locals then voted in a referendum to trade Ukrainian for Russian citizenship, and Putin held aloft his trophy for all to see. Within a few more days, his domestic approval numbers spiked from 65 percent to 80 percent, and he is still riding that wave of popularity.
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