Another certified moron bites the dust
JOHN
SIMPSON, BBC: Western countries almost universally now believe that
there’s a new Cold War and that you, frankly, have decided to create
that. We see, almost daily, Russian aircraft taking sometimes quite
dangerous manoeuvres towards western airspace. That must be done on your
orders; you’re the Commander-in-Chief. It must have been your orders
that sent Russian troops into the territory of a sovereign country –
Crimea first, and then whatever it is that’s going on in Eastern
Ukraine. Now you’ve got a big problem with the currency of Russia, and
you’re going to need help and support and understanding from outside
countries, particularly from the West. So can I say to you, can I ask
you now, would you care to take this opportunity to say to people from
the West that you have no desire to carry on with the new Cold War, and
that you will do whatever you can to sort out the problems in Ukraine?
Thank you!
Fighting in Slavyansk on Monday, chaos in Odessa, and entrenchment on all elevates talk of open war
- Jon Queally, staff writer
Pro-Russia
gunmen on armored personal carriers passing by barricades on a road
leading into Slavyansk. (Photograph: Darko Vojinovic/AP)
Interim
president Oleksandr Turchynov on Monday was the latest to indicate that
the spiraling violence in an increasingly divided Ukraine looks more
and more like civil war as efforts to contain uprisings in the east
against Kiev's authority have only elevated the violence in recent days.
"War
is in effect being waged against us, and we must be ready to repel this
aggression," said Turchynov in a televised address from Kiev and
referring to violence in the cities of Odessa, Slavyansk, and elsewhere
over the weekend. According to Agence France-Presse,
the latest high-level warning from Kiev comes as Ukraine spirals
"further into a chaos that many fear could result in open civil war."
Turchynov
has called up additional forces and reintroduced conscription for
military-aged Ukrainians citing fear of a Russian invasion on the
eastern border.
This AFP video report shows how some regular Ukrainians are preparing for "civil war":
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ajtkVurRoQ]
Meanwhile, in and around the city of Slavyansk on Monday, journalists reported that opposing factions were exchanging heavy gunfire and that loud explosions could be heard throughout the area.
And
in Donetsk, militias opposed to Kiev's rule and calling for a
referendum vote on their autonomy have now taken full control of the
city despite continued threats from the Ukraine army.
“What is
happening in the east is not a short-term action,” said Vasyl Krutov,
who heads the Kiev government’s military operations in the east. “This
is essentially a war.”
As the following map by AFP shows, the number of cities in open revolt against the Kiev government is growing:
The Associated Pressreports:
Ukraine
is facing its worst crisis in decades as the polarised nation of 46
million tries to decide whether to look towards Europe, as its western
regions want to do, or improve ties with Russia, which is favoured by
the many Russian-speakers in the east.
In the last few weeks,
anti-government forces have stormed and seized government buildings and
police stations in a dozen eastern Ukrainian cities. Authorities in Kiev
– who blame Russia for backing the insurgents – have up to now been
largely powerless to react.
And since Russia has kept tens of
thousands of troops along Ukraine's eastern border – and annexed its key
Black Sea peninsula of Crimea last month – Ukraine's central government
fears Russia could try to invade and grab more territory.
Since
the government began trying to take back the buildings late last week,
Slavyansk has been under a tight security cordon. Movement in and out of
the city has ground almost to a halt, causing shortages in basic
supplies. Lines have been seen at grocery stores.
The goals of the
insurgency are ostensibly geared towards pushing for broader powers of
autonomy for the region, but some insurgents favour separatism, and the
annexation of Crimea looms over the entire political and military
discussion.
Following Friday's violence in Odessa and
the growing number of revolts in the east, former U.S. ambassador to
Moscow, Michael McFaul, spoke with Time magazine and made this warning: “The last 24 hours was a major escalation,” told TIME. “This is real. This is war.”
________________________________
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 License.
After
storming the office, Pro-Russian activists burn uniforms outside the
prosecutor's office in the separatist-held city of Donetsk, Ukraine, May
1, 2014.
VOA News
April 30, 2014 6:22 AM
Ukraine’s
acting president says that the Kyiv government has effectively lost
control over the situation in the country’s eastern Luhansk and Donetsk
regions where a number of government buildings have been taken over by
pro-Russia separatists.
Oleksandr Turchynov says that Russia is
now eyeing six more regions in the country’s east and south. A takeover
by Russia of two such regions, if it were to take full control of
Donetsk, would secure Russia’s land connection with Crimea, which it
annexed last month.
The takeover of two more regions along the
Black Sea coast would connect Russian mainland with Moldova’s
Russian-speaking Transdniestria enclave.
Speaking Wednesday at a
meeting of regional leaders in Kyiv, Turchynov operatives have received
instructions from Moscow to destabilize, via "acts of sabotage," the
regions of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzha, Mykolayiv and
Odesa.
Kyiv says that many such operatives have received training and are being financed by Russia, a charge Moscow denies. On full alert
Bracing
for a possible invasion by Russian troops massed on the border,
Turchynov says Ukraine’s military has been put "on full combat alert."
Speaking
at a ministerial meeting in Kyiv on Wednesday, he said there was a real
threat of Russia starting a war against Ukraine's mainland.
A
Ukrainian soldier stands guard in front of armored personnel carriers
at a check point near the village of Malynivka, southeast of Slovyansk,
in eastern Ukraine, April 29, 2014
Moscow, meanwhile, has voiced concern over Turchynov’s statement, criticizing it as “militaristic.”
“We
insist that Kyiv immediately cease its militaristic rhetoric aimed at
intimidating its own population,” said a Foreign Ministry statement
calling on Ukrainian authorities to start a dialogue toward national
reconciliation instead.
The criticism comes as pro-Russian gunmen
seized yet another administrative building in eastern Ukraine. Armed
insurgents took control of the local council building in Horlivka early
Wednesday, a town of more than 260,000 people. Police say the
pro-Russian rebels have also overtaken the town’s regional police
department.
Hundreds of pro-Russian separatists overran more
Ukrainian government buildings near the Russian border earlier this
week, taking control of several in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The
pro-Moscow rebels in Donetsk have set a referendum on secession for May
11. A similar vote last month led to Russia's annexation of Ukraine’s
Crimean peninsula. Possible reshuffle
Ukrainian
Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk threatened his government on Wednesday
with a reshuffle if it failed to meet the demands of the people,
venting frustration with Kyiv's failure to restore law and order in the
country's east.
Some critics say the central government has become all but paralyzed by infighting.
“The
country demands action and results. If there is such action and results
that means the government is doing its job,” Yatsenyuk told a
government meeting.
“If in the near future such action and results fail to materialize, that means there will be personnel changes,” said Yatsenyuk.
He
said ministers would also pass to parliament a law on conducting a
nationwide poll on Ukrainian unity and territorial integrity, “those
issues which concern Ukraine today,” on May 25 when Ukraine is due to
hold a presidential election.
The Propaganda War: Opposition Sings Kremlin Tune on Ukraine
By Christian Neef and Matthias Schepp in Moscow
AFP
The
propaganda war in the Ukraine crisis has spawned a renewal Russian
nationalism, with members of the opposition and the intellectual class
suddenly praising President Putin. Many in Russia are accepting the
Kremlin's official line uncritically.
Perhaps
Alexander Byvshev was a little naïve. Maybe he thought his small
village was somehow a safe haven from the world of global politics. But
how wrong he was.
Byvshev, a German teacher in the district of Orlov, recently opened up his local newspaper, Sarya,
or "the dawn," only to find his name featured in a prominent slot. "In
these troubled times, when enemies outside the country are showing their
teeth and preparing to take the leap of death, you can find people who
would like to undermine Russia from within," the newspaper wrote.
"People like A. Byvshev."
How did Byvshev wind up in the
newspaper? All it took was a short poem he wrote and posted on VK,
Russia's popular social network answer to Facebook. He had directed the
poem at "patriot cheerleaders" who uncritically follow Moscow's
propaganda. "From a very early age, I have been accustomed to not
telling lies," Byvshev says. "If Russia stole Crimea from Ukraine, then
one has to speak openly about the fact that it was theft." 'No Place for Patriots Like This in Russia'
It's
an openness that hasn't done him much good recently. "There's No Place
for Patriots Like This in Russia," blared the headline of the article
about Byvshev. Acquaintances stopped greeting him, local businesses
began ignoring his presence and now the local regional prosecutor is
threatening to press charges against him for "incitement to hatred." He
faces two years behind bars if convicted.
It is an incident
reminiscent of the 1930s, an era when the line between Communist and
public enemy was a fine one. At the time, Stalin had hundreds of
thousands of so-called enemies of the people shot and killed.
Today,
Moscow's territorial claims in Ukraine have unleashed a sense of
nationalism so aggressive that it has silenced virtually all critical
voices. Indeed, it is a singular official view that appears to have
prevailed in Russia -- namely that a clique in Kiev, with American
support, is seeking to destroy Ukraine despite heroic efforts by
millions in the eastern part of the country. And that these people need
Russia's support.
The ability to differentiate appears to have
evaporated and the state propaganda machine has become as effective as
it is comprehensive. The media seem to be following it in lockstep, as
evidenced last week. "Ukraine Is Waging War against Its Own People" read
the front page of one issue of Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the official
Russian government newspaper, in response to the decision by the interim
government early last week to send troops to the eastern part of the
country. The "Kiev junta" wants to "bombard the Donbas," commented
Russia's largest-circulation daily, Komsomolskaya Pravda, adding: "Our people are mourning the dead and injured." "Sloviansk is covered in blood," claimed the tabloid Tyov Den ("Your Day"). None of these reports is true. Have Russians Become Gullible?
The
problem is that people in Russia these days seem to believe almost
every false report that comes out of Moscow, and few are questioning
their accuracy. New channel Russia 24 unceasingly shows Ukrainians in
the eastern part of the country holding machine guns and grenade
launchers. But nobody in Russia bothers to ask where they are getting
their arms from.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, the man
ostensibly rushing to the aid of Russians in Ukraine, is the hero of the
day. Finally, Russians seem to believe, he is paying the West back for
years of humiliation. And yet the justifications Putin has provided
could hardly be more cynical.
Last Wednesday, Putin declared the
escalation of the crisis in eastern Ukraine to be the product of the
"irresponsible and unconstitutional policies of the regime in Kiev,"
which, he claimed had used the army to suppress the protests of peaceful
citizens in the region. Yet to that point, there had been little
activity by the army. During the Maidan square revolt, he called for the
exact opposite: Putin said the military must use force to stop the
protests. Nationalist Delirium
Moscow is acting as
though it were located just behind the front lines. Indeed, the pull of
nationalist delirium has become so strong that even Putin's own
opponents seem no longer capable of resisting it.
Only two years
ago, Sergei Udaltsov, along with blogger and opposition politician
Alexei Navalny, was one of the most eloquent speakers at anti-Putin
protests in Moscow. He has been under house arrest since 2013 on charges
he sought to incite mass riots. Despite his situation, even Udaltsov
has declared his support for Russia's actions and its annexation of
Crimea. "I am a supporter of direct democracy, and I welcome the Crimea
referendum as an expression of popular government," he recently stated.
Armed
men outside an administrative building in Slovyansk, Ukraine. American
officials say Russian troops or pro-Russian separatists under Moscow’s
influence control such buildings.Credit Genya Savilov/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State John Kerry has accused Russia of behaving in a “19th-century fashion” because of its annexation of Crimea.
But Western experts who have followed the success of Russian forces in carrying out President Vladimir V. Putin’s policy in Crimea and eastern Ukraine
have come to a different conclusion about Russian military strategy.
They see a military disparaged for its decline since the fall of the
Soviet Union skillfully employing 21st-century tactics that combine cyberwarfare,
an energetic information campaign and the use of highly trained special
operation troops to seize the initiative from the West.
“It
is a significant shift in how Russian ground forces approach a
problem,” said James G. Stavridis, the retired admiral and former NATO
commander. “They have played their hand of cards with finesse.”
The
abilities the Russian military has displayed are not only important to
the high-stakes drama in Ukraine, they also have implications for the
security of Moldova, Georgia, Central Asian nations and even the Central
Europe nations that are members of NATO.
The
dexterity with which the Russians have operated in Ukraine is a far cry
from the bludgeoning artillery, airstrikes and surface-to-surface
missiles used to retake Grozny, the Chechen capital, from Chechen
separatists in 2000. In that conflict, the notion of avoiding collateral
damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure appeared to be alien.
Since
then Russia has sought to develop more effective ways of projecting
power in the “near abroad,” the non-Russian nations that emerged from
the collapse of the Soviet Union. It has tried to upgrade its military,
giving priority to its special forces, airborne and naval infantry —
“rapid reaction” abilities that were “road tested” in Crimea, according
to Roger McDermott, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation.
The
speedy success that Russia had in Crimea does not mean that the overall
quality of the Russian Army, made up mainly of conscripts and no match
for the high-tech American military, has been transformed.
“The
operation reveals very little about the current condition of the
Russian armed forces,” said Mr. McDermott. “Its real strength lay in
covert action combined with sound intelligence concerning the weakness
of the Kiev government and their will to respond militarily.”
Still,
Russia’s operations in Ukraine have been a swift meshing of hard and
soft power. The Obama administration, which once held out hope that Mr.
Putin would seek an “off ramp” from the pursuit of Crimea, has
repeatedly been forced to play catch-up after the Kremlin changed what
was happening on the ground.
“It
is much more sophisticated, and it reflects the evolution of the
Russian military and of Russian training and thinking about operations
and strategy over the years,” said Stephen J. Blank, a former expert on
the Russian military at the United States Army War College who is a
senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council.
WASHINGTON,
March 25, 2013 – Noting increased cooperation between NATO and Russia
in several key areas, the top NATO and U.S. European Command commander
emphasized today the importance of working through stumbling blocks in
what he called a “complicated partnership.”
In a blog post, Navy
Adm. James G. Stavridis cited concerted efforts by both parties since
NATO’s 2010 summit in Lisbon, Portugal, where the alliance’s 28 heads of
state and government agreed on the need to pursue “a true strategic
partnership” between NATO and Russia and noted in the strategic concept
that they expect reciprocity from Russia.
Stavridis recognized
several areas where increased cooperation has shown signs of paying off:
counterpiracy; support for the NATO-led International Security
Assistance Force in Afghanistan, military exchanges and training
exercises, counterterrorism and counternarcotics, among them.
“Overall,
we enjoy cooperation and some level of partnership in a variety of
important areas,” he said. “On the other hand, there are clearly
challenges in the relationship.”
Stavridis noted Russia’s
objections to the European phased adaptive approach for missile defense.
“Russia sees the NATO missile defense system as posing a threat to
their strategic intercontinental ballistic missile force,” he said. “We
strongly disagree, and feel that the system is clearly designed to
protect populations against Iran, Syria and other
ballistic-missile-capable nations that threaten the European continent.”
NATO and Russia also disagree over Russian forces stationed in Georgia and NATO’s role in Libya, Stavridis said.
“We
maintain that we operated under the U.N. Security Council mandate to
establish a no-fly zone, provide an arms embargo and protect the people
of Libya from attacks,” he said, calling NATO’s actions “well within the
bounds of the [U.N.] mandate and the norms of international law.
“Russia
sees this differently,” Stavridis continued, “and whenever I discuss
this with Russian interlocutors, we find little room for agreement. This
tends to create a differing set of views about the dangerous situation
in Syria as well.”
Stavridis noted Russian Ambassador to NATO
Alexander Grushko’s stated concerns that these differences -- and the
installation of NATO military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders
-- threaten to unravel progress made in their relations.
“Notwithstanding
differences on particular issues, we remain convinced that the security
of NATO and Russia is intertwined,” Stavridis said, quoting the NATO
strategic concept agreed to in Lisbon. “A strong and constructive
partnership based on mutual confidence, transparency and predictability
can best serve our security,” it states.
Stavridis recognized areas in which the growing NATO-Russian relationship is bearing fruit:
--
Counterpiracy: Loosely coordinated efforts by NATO and Russian ships
have reduced piracy by 70 percent over the past year and caused the
number of ships and mariners held hostage to plummet in what the admiral
called “a very effective operation.”
-- Afghanistan support:
Russia contributed small arms and ammunition to the Afghan security
forces and sold MI-17 helicopters and maintenance training to the Afghan
air force. In addition, Russia provides logistical support, including a
transit arrangement that helps to sustain NATO-led ISAF forces and
redeployment efforts.
-- Military exchanges and exercises: Russian
service members are participating in more of these engagements with the
United States and NATO. These exchanges, including port calls in
Russia, have been well-received by both militaries, Stavridis noted.
--
Arctic cooperation: Russia is collaborating with other members of the
Arctic Council, including the United States, Norway, Denmark, Canada and
Iceland, to ensure the Arctic remains a zone of cooperation.
--
Counterterrorism: In the lead-up to the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi,
Russia, NATO is offering assistance and information-sharing via a
variety of channels, Stavridis reported.
-- Counternarcotics: NATO
and Russia are working together to stem the flow of heroin from
Afghanistan, a high priority for Russia.
Expressing hopes that
NATO and Russia can continue to build on this cooperation, Stavridis
said areas of tensions and disagreements need to be addressed.
“No
one wants to stumble backwards toward the Cold War, so the best course
for the future is open discussion, frank airing of disagreements, and
hopefully seeking to build the ‘true strategic partnership’ set out in
the NATO strategic concept,” he said. “Clearly, we have some work to
do.”
Putin Pledges To Protect All Ethnic Russians Anywhere. So, Where Are They?
Russian enough?
By Robert Coalson
April 10, 2014
In
recent weeks, the Russian government has articulated what might be
called the Putin Doctrine, a blanket assertion that Moscow has the right
and the obligation to protect Russians anywhere in the world.
Speaking on Russian television last month, Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for
President Vladimir Putin, said that "Russia is the country on which the
Russian world is based" and that Putin "is probably the main guarantor
of the safety of the Russian world."
The ebbing and flowing of
the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union over recent centuries have left
millions of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers outside the borders of
today's Russian Federation.
Many of them -- from Moldova's
Transdniester to eastern Ukraine and elsewhere -- have responded to the
Putin Doctrine with calls for Russian "protection."
A banner
outside a government building in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk that is
occupied by pro-Russian separatists reads: "Russia! Save us from
slavery."
The Kremlin's new position has come into sharp focus in recent weeks in
the Ukrainian region of Crimea -- annexed by Russia last month -- and
in the southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. Russian nationalists
such as the Eurasianist ideologue Aleksandr Dugin refer to this region
by the historical name "Novorossiya,"
or "New Russia," which also encompasses several southern regions of
Russia including Rostov Oblast and Stavropol and Krasnodar krais.
The area was added to the Russian Empire over the 18th and early 19th
centuries by military conquests over the Crimean Khanate and the Ottoman
Empire. Beginning with Catherine the Great, the fertile region was
handed out to Russian nobility who enserfed the local population.
Although Catherine notably invited foreigners from Europe to settle in
the region, Russification of the region was official policy.
Click to open interactive infographic in new window
Today there are more than 5 million ethnic Russians in the Ukrainian
parts of Novorossiya, making up a significant plurality in most of the
regions. Russians compose a majority in Crimea because of energetic
Russification there and the 1944 mass deportation of Crimean Tatars, who
are only now approaching their pre-deportation population levels on the
peninsula.
Deportations In Moldova
On the edge of historical Novorossiya is the Moldovan region of
Transdniester, which today is home to at least 150,000 Russian passport
holders. The region was brought into the Russian Empire in the 1790s and
its capital, Tiraspol, was founded as a border outpost by the legendary
General Aleksandr Suvorov.
Different MasterCards at the Sentry Center in New York, Sept. 15, 2011 (Brian Ach/Getty Images for MasterCard)
So
far, the West’s reaction to Russia’s annexation of Crimea has been
rather chivalrous. Freeze a few assets here, travel restrictions for a
dozen people there, and of course have Visa and MasterCard stop
providing services for a few Russian banks.
Putin then said Russia
will explore launching its own credit cards, similar to Japan’s JCB and
China’s UnionPay. Nice try. While these two companies have pretty good
traction in their home market, they are dwarfed by American plastic.
According
to research by Nilson, MasterCard processed more than $8 trillion of
the world’s credit card transactions in 2011. Visa came second at around
$3 trillion and UnionPay third with a little more than $2 trillion. The
reason: MasterCard and Visa are accepted everywhere in the world, where
the other two are pretty much local only.
Either way, banning a
few Russian banks from processing Visa or Master for a while or Russia
launching its own alternatives won’t change a lot in the grand scheme of
things. However, the direction where this conflict is going is
interesting. The Nuclear Option
International
payments between banks are processed via the Society for Worldwide
Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), a little known
member-owned cooperative based in Belgium.
If you have ever sent
an international wire transfer, you will likely have entered a so-called
Business Identifier Code, or BIC in short. It is part of SWIFT’s system
for processing payments.
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